Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 4.556297 5.427744 6.394476 7.542705 8.865377 10.337172 12.094647
2025-04-06 3.171674 4.310588 5.718166 7.568006 9.915204 12.772736 16.490584
2025-04-13 2.310898 3.528337 5.180700 7.545408 10.793109 15.040850 20.949460
2025-04-20 1.922695 3.238423 5.168550 8.128226 12.455996 18.439971 27.198181
2025-04-27 1.563560 2.885959 4.969517 8.369320 13.623494 21.247451 32.902161
2025-05-04 1.313684 2.636060 4.857999 8.688319 14.899372 24.291730 39.187670
2025-05-11 1.067836 2.328090 4.583400 8.682456 15.639298 26.573833 44.515874
2025-05-18 0.837252 1.987162 4.180225 8.381106 15.835837 27.998320 48.614814
2025-05-25 0.646549 1.672859 3.759101 7.967659 15.766432 28.953729 52.008263
2025-06-01 0.529929 1.483908 3.538142 7.877350 16.229465 30.797599 56.951007
2025-06-08 0.435674 1.319405 3.332709 7.778406 16.650480 32.584719 61.908821
2025-06-15 0.398105 1.283890 3.394138 8.218656 18.120119 36.306884 70.415155
2025-06-22 0.340861 1.183970 3.300060 8.335543 19.005316 39.107374 77.617375
2025-06-29 0.287019 1.077363 3.170640 8.359056 19.712153 41.650811 84.574176
2025-07-06 0.239873 0.974694 3.029390 8.332968 20.311229 44.037720 91.416871
2025-07-13 0.227716 0.979578 3.164523 8.967288 22.364894 49.360429 104.029501
2025-07-20 0.202074 0.930538 3.146096 9.229544 23.638777 53.250573 114.191309
2025-07-27 0.182491 0.896287 3.161647 9.576602 25.131499 57.677133 125.641068
2025-08-03 0.155032 0.821693 3.045281 9.570196 25.822191 60.528291 134.211701
2025-08-10 0.124082 0.719013 2.820457 9.242264 25.729244 61.751941 139.651041
2025-08-17 0.096427 0.615899 2.567266 8.792138 25.288513 62.198696 143.548320
2025-08-24 0.080279 0.557632 2.446803 8.693782 25.689465 64.467295 151.271502
2025-08-31 0.066656 0.504388 2.329973 8.586007 26.052118 66.671866 158.983791